Nasdaq Composite — Streaks & Enhanced Insights (incl. 2025 YTD)

 

• 1971–1972 · Positive · Length: 2 · Cumulative ROR: 34%
  Note (enhanced): Early index era; recovery from the 1969–70 recession; Nixon-era fiscal/monetary mix supportive; semiconductors and minicomputers expand commercial use; market breadth improves as institutions formalize growth mandates.

• 1973–1974 · Negative · Length: 2 · Cumulative ROR: −55%
  Note (enhanced): First oil shock + stagflation; profit margins compress; policy uncertainty; P/E multiples de-rate; bear-market rallies fail; rising real yields and wage/price controls erode risk appetite.

• 1975–1980 · Positive · Length: 6 · Cumulative ROR: 338%
  Note (enhanced): Post-recession rebound; disinflation off peaks; microcomputer revolution (Apple II, early IBM PC groundwork); venture funding grows; listing pipeline broadens; multiple expansion as productivity optimism rises despite episodic inflation scares.

• 1981 · Negative · Length: 1 · Cumulative ROR: −3%
  Note (enhanced): Volcker disinflation drives policy rates/real yields higher; growth equities compress; recession risk rises; defensive rotation into cash/bonds; market recalibrates to tighter financial conditions.

• 1982–1983 · Positive · Length: 2 · Cumulative ROR: 42%
  Note (enhanced): Inflation breaks; rates roll over; powerful multiple re-rating; PC/software ecosystem spreads; networking components see rising orders; breadth robust as liquidity returns.

• 1984 · Negative · Length: 1 · Cumulative ROR: −11%
  Note (enhanced): Mid-cycle slowdown; inventories and higher real rates bite; earnings quality questioned in select hardware names; consolidation before the next leg.

• 1985–1986 · Positive · Length: 2 · Cumulative ROR: 41%
  Note (enhanced): Disinflation and the Plaza Accord shift currency dynamics; margins improve on lower funding costs; semiconductor capacity ramps; M&A/roll-ups in tech hardware; steady multiple expansion.

• 1987 · Negative · Length: 1 · Cumulative ROR: −5%
  Note (enhanced): Crash year; portfolio insurance/market-structure fragilities amplify a technical selloff; liquidity provision improves post-crash, but year ends down despite late recovery.

• 1988–1989 · Positive · Length: 2 · Cumulative ROR: 38%
  Note (enhanced): Post-crash repair; regulatory/market-structure fixes; earnings re-accelerate; computer/network spending resumes; volatility falls; institutions re-risk gradually.

• 1990 · Negative · Length: 1 · Cumulative ROR: −18%
  Note (enhanced): Recession + Gulf War onset; oil spike; consumer confidence dips; capex defers; spreads widen; valuation pressure across cyclicals and growth.

• 1991–1992 · Positive · Length: 2 · Cumulative ROR: 84%
  Note (enhanced): Early-90s expansion; client-server computing spreads; networking/software platforms scale; P/E re-rating; robust IPO channel for tech enablers.

• 1994 · Negative · Length: 1 · Cumulative ROR: −3%
  Note (enhanced): “Bond massacre” tightening cycle; rapid Fed hikes compress long-duration equity multiples; choppy tape with factor rotations; tech underperforms briefly before the internet era accelerates.

• 1995–1999 · Positive · Length: 5 · Cumulative ROR: 472%
  Note (enhanced): Commercial internet adoption; browser/portal wars; explosive IPO/secondary calendar; analysts emphasize TAM/network effects over GAAP earnings; Cisco/Microsoft/Intel leadership; momentum and growth funds dominate flows.

• 2000–2002 · Negative · Length: 3 · Cumulative ROR: −70%
  Note (enhanced): Dot-com unwind; telecom overbuild; revenue quality concerns; equity issuance shuts; accounting scrutiny rises; liquidity tightens into 2001 recession; forced deleveraging and fund closures deepen the bust.

• 2003–2007 · Positive · Length: 5 · Cumulative ROR: 93%
  Note (enhanced): Post-bust/early Web 2.0 bull; low rates + expanding credit; search/ads and social platforms scale; M&A returns; semis recover; gradual multiple expansion with strong FCF leaders.

• 2008 · Negative · Length: 1 · Cumulative ROR: −41%
  Note (enhanced): GFC: systemic banking stress, counterparty risk, and deleveraging; correlations spike; spreads blow out; indiscriminate selling across beta; policy response (TARP, QE) begins late-year.

• 2009–2011 · Positive · Length: 3 · Cumulative ROR: 75%
  Note (enhanced): QE-supported recovery; earnings rebound; smartphones/cloud foundations laid; risk premiums compress; 2011 Euro-area turmoil interrupts momentum but doesn’t break the streak.

• 2011 · Negative · Length: 1 · Cumulative ROR: −2%
  Note (enhanced): Euro-sovereign stress + US debt-ceiling downgrade; global growth scare; liquidity hoarding; year finishes slightly down despite policy backstops.

• 2012–2017 · Positive · Length: 6 · Cumulative ROR: 207%
  Note (enhanced): Record-tie six-year run; mobile/cloud at scale; hyperscaler CAPEX cycle; ad-platform dominance; low rates elevate duration assets; semis transition to data-center-centric demand.

• 2018 · Negative · Length: 1 · Cumulative ROR: −4%
  Note (enhanced): Q4 risk-off on Fed hikes + QT + trade tensions; factor shock hits growth; volatility-targeting/CTA de-risking amplifies late-year drop; quick 2019 snap-back follows.

• 2019–2021 · Positive · Length: 3 · Cumulative ROR: 131%
  Note (enhanced): Ultra-low rates + pandemic digitization; work-from-anywhere, e-commerce, cloud acceleration; unprecedented fiscal/monetary support; mega-cap platforms drive index concentration higher.

• 2022 · Negative · Length: 1 · Cumulative ROR: −33%
  Note (enhanced): Inflation shock + fastest tightening cycle in decades; real yields up, duration assets down; valuation compression across long-duration growth; risk capital retreats.

• 2023–2025 (YTD) · Positive · Length: 3 · Cumulative ROR: ≈ +128%
  Note (enhanced): AI-led rebound extends: semiconductor upcycle (accelerators/HBM), hyperscaler CAPEX, inference at the edge; easing inflation momentum vs still-elevated real yields; leadership narrow but powerful; active debate on sustainability of AI spend and earnings diffusion beyond enablers.

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What the Data Is Telling Us

• Bull runs persist longer than bear runs (two 6-year wins vs a 3-year loss streak).

• Compounding asymmetry: long positives stack huge gains; a few negative years can erase them quickly.

• Beta reality: Nasdaq outruns the S&P on the way up and falls harder on the way down—size accordingly.

• Liquidity rules: big down periods coincide with funding/credit stress; narratives amplify but don’t override liquidity.

• Late-cycle sprints are fragile: large returns cluster near peaks, then reverse—use pre-committed trims.

• Discipline > prediction: rules (trend filters, staged buys/sells) preserve compounding across cycles.